Evaluating the Conditions of Chinese Housing Markets: What We Know and What We Need to Know

主讲人: Yongheng Deng

Yongheng Deng, the Special-Term Professor of Finance at Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University and Professor and the John P. Morgridge Distinguished Chair in Business at Wisconsin School of Business, University of Wisconsin – Madison.
Professor Deng’s primary research interest is in evaluating conditions in Asian and China’s real estate and housing markets. He has published his research works in leading economics and finance journals such as Econometrica, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Urban Economics, Review of Finance, China Economic Review, European Economic Review, Capitalism and Society, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Housing Economics, and Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.
Professor Deng has served as the 50th President of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (AREUEA), the first Asian to be elected President in the Association’s 50-year history.
Professor Deng holds a Ph.D. in Economics from University of California at Berkeley.

主持人: 周颖刚

Real estate is an important driver of the Chinese economy, which itself is vital for global growth. However, data limitations make it challenging to evaluate competing claims about the state of Chinese housing markets. This paper brings new data and analysis to the study of supply and demand conditions in nearly three dozen major cities.
We find that (1) Real house price growth has been high, averaging 10% per annum since 2006. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across markets, ranging from 2.8% (Jinan) to 19.8% (Beijing). House price growth is driven by rising land values, not by construction costs. Real land values have risen by 14.4% per annum on average. In Beijing, the increase has been by a remarkable 27.5% per year (or by 1,036%) since 2004. (2) There is variation in the strong positive trend in house prices and land value growth. Land values fell by nearly one-third at the beginning of the global financial crisis, but more than fully recovered amidst the 2009-2010 Chinese stimulus. More recent growth has been much more modest, with some markets beginning to decline. Quantities of land sales by local governments to private residential developers have dropped sharply since 2013. The most recent data show transaction volumes down by half or more. This should lead to a reduced supply of new housing units in coming years. (3) Market-level analysis of short- and longer-run changes in supply-demand balances finds important variation across markets. In the major East region markets of Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, which have experienced very high rates of real price growth, we estimate that the growth in households demanding housing units has outpaced new construction since the turn of the century. However, there are thirteen large markets, primarily in the interior of the country, in which new housing production has outpaced household growth by at least 30% and another eleven in which it did so by at least 10%. Regression results show that a one standard deviation increase in local market housing inventory is associated with a 0.45 standard deviation lower rate of real house price growth the following year.

时间: 2019-11-22(Friday)16:40-18:00
地点: N302, Econ Building
类型: 系列讲座